Temporal trend in the incidence of human visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil / Tendência temporal da incidência de leishmaniose visceral humana no Brasil

Abstract It is an ecological study that analyzed the time trend of visceral leishmaniasis incidence rates in Brazil using segmented time regression by joinpoints. There was a decreasing incidence rate of this disease in the country with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of -5 (CI95%: -9.1; -0.6) and a reduction of 1.69 cases/100 thousand inhabitants in 2007, and 0.91/100 thousand inhabitants in 2020. The Central-West region showed the highest reduction percent (AAPC: -9.1; CI95%: -13.8; -4.3), followed by the Southeast region (AAPC: -8.7; -14.6; -2.5). The North and South regions showed the largest number of joinpoints in the time series. The highest incidences were recorded in the male population, however, stable (AAPC: 2.14; CI95%: -8.3; 0). In the age group analysis, the trend was decreasing for the groups from 0 to 4 years old (AAPC: -7.7; CI95%: -12.6; -2.4), 5 to 9 years old (AAPC: -7.3; CI95%: -13.6; -0,4) and 10 to 14 years old (AAPC: -5.5; CI95%: -10.3; -0.3). It was found that although Visceral Leishmaniasis is an endemic disease in Brazil, there was a decrease in its incidence rate from 2007 to 2020.

Resumo Trata-se de um estudo ecológico que analisou a tendência temporal das taxas de incidência de leishmaniose visceral no Brasil mediante regressão temporal segmentada por pontos de inflexão. Observou-se tendência de decréscimo na taxa de incidência dessa patologia no país, com variação variação percentual média anual (average annual percent change - AAPC) de -5 (IC95%: -9,1; -0,6) e redução de 1,69 casos/100 mil habitantes em 2007, para 0,91/100 mil habitantes em 2020. A região Centro-Oeste apresentou a maior redução do AAPC (AAPC: -9,1; IC95%: -13,8; -4,3), seguida da região Sudeste (AAPC: -8,7; -14,6; -2,5). As regiões Norte e Sul apresentaram o maior número de pontos de inflexão (joinpoint) na série temporal. As maiores incidências foram registradas na população masculina, porém com tendência estacionária (AAPC: 2,14; IC95%: -8,3; 0). Na análise por faixa etária, a tendência foi decrescente nos grupos de 0 a 4 anos (AAPC: -7,7; IC95%: -12,6; -2,4), 5 a 9 anos (AAPC: -7,3; IC95%: -13,6; -0,4) e de 10 a 14 anos (AAPC: -5,5; IC95%: -10,3; -0,3). Verificou-se que, apesar de a leishmaniose visceral se tratar de uma doença endêmica no Brasil, houve declínio na sua taxa de incidência no período de 2007 a 2020.

Tendências temporais e projeções de cesariana no Brasil, macrorregiões administrativas e unidades federativas / Temporal trends and projections of caesarean sections in Brazil, its administrative macro-regions, and federative units

Resumo Os estudos de tendência sobre a via de nascimento no Brasil têm revelado um cenário de sucessivos aumentos lineares nas proporções de cesariana. Entretanto, a possibilidade de mudanças na evolução temporal da via cirúrgica não tem sido considerada. Dessa forma, objetivou-se verificar possíveis pontos de inflexão na proporção de cesarianas no Brasil, macrorregiões e unidades federativas, bem como estimar suas projeções para o ano de 2030. Utilizou-se a série temporal com as cesarianas notificadas no Departamento de Informática do SUS no período de 1994 a 2019. Foram utilizados modelos autorregressivos integrados de médias móveis e de regressão joinpoint para obtenção de projeções e de tendências das proporções de cesariana, respectivamente. As proporções de cesarianas apresentaram tendência significativa de aumento ao longo dos 26 anos de estudo em todos os níveis de agregação. Por outro lado, quando se considera a formação de segmentos, observa-se tendência de estabilização no país e nas regiões Sul e Centro-Oeste, a partir de 2012. Norte e Nordeste apresentaram tendência de aumento e o Sudeste, de queda significativa. Projeções indicam que no ano de 2030, 57,4% dos nascimentos no país ocorrerão por via cirúrgica e que nas regiões Sudeste e Sul, serão observadas proporções superiores a 70%.

Abstract Trend studies on the model of birth in Brazil show a scenario of successive linear increases in cesarean rates. However, they ignore possible changes in the temporal evolution of this delivery modality. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate possible inflection points in cesarean rates in Brazil, its macro-regions, and federated units, as well as to estimate projections for 2030. A time series with information on cesarean sections from 1994 to 2019 from the SUS Department of Informatics was used. Autoregressive integrated moving average and joinpoint regression models were used to obtain cesarean rate projections and trends, respectively. Caesarean rates showed a significant upward trend over the 26 study years at all levels of aggregation. On the other hand, when considering the formation of segments, a stabilization trend was observed both in the country and in the South and Midwest regions, starting in 2012. Rates tended to increase in North and Northeast and significantly decrease in Southeast. Projections show that in 2030, 57.4% of births in Brazil will be cesarean, with rates higher than 70% in Southeast and South regions.

Distribuição espacial e temporal da sífilis congênita na população potiguar / Spatial and temporal distribution of congenital syphilis in the potiguar population / Distribución espacial y temporal de sífilis congénita en la población potiguar

Objetivo: Descrever a distribuição temporal e espacial dos casos confirmados de sífilis congênita no estado do Rio Grande do Norte, entre os anos de 2007 e 2017. Métodos: Estudo ecológico. Os dados foram obtidos do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação por meio do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde. Resultados: Ocorreram 3.344 casos, a menor incidência foi em 2007 (2,49) e a maior em 2017 (10,26). Houve maiores taxas de incidência em São Gonçalo do Amarante (620,69), Macaíba (49,26) e Mossoró (892,86) em anos diferentes. Identificou-se autocorrelação espacial da taxa de incidência por sífilis congênita nos anos de 2008 (p-valor 0,01; I= 0,18) e 2014 (p-valor 0,04; I= 0,04). Conclusão: A sífilis congênita apresenta crescimento no estado e sua distribuição está mais frequente em municípios da região metropolitana e em cidade interiorana, onde existem situações contextuais que influenciam nas taxas de incidência. (AU)

Objective: To describe the temporal and spatial distribution of confirmed cases of congenital syphilis in the state of Rio Grande do Norte between the years 2007 and 2017. Methods: Ecological study. Data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System through the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System. Results: There were 3,344 cases, the lowest incidence was in 2007 (2.49) and the highest in 2017 (10.26). There were higher incidence rates in São Gonçalo do Amarante (620.69), Macaíba (49.26) and Mossoró (892.86) in different years. Spatial autocorrelation of the incidence rate for congenital syphilis was identified in the years 2008 (p-value 0.01; I = 0.18) and 2014 (p-value 0.04; I = 0.04). Conclusion: Congenital syphilis is growing in the state and its distribution is more frequent in municipalities in the metropolitan region and in an inland city, where there are contextual situations that influence incidence rates. (AU)

Objetivo: Describir la distribución temporal y espacial de casos confirmados de sífilis congénita en el estado de Rio Grande do Norte entre los años 2007 y 2017. Métodos: Estudio ecológico. Los datos se obtuvieron del Sistema de Información de Enfermedades de Notificación a través del Departamento de Informática del Sistema Único de Salud. Resultados: Hubo 3,344 casos, la incidencia más baja fue en 2007 (2,49) y la más alta en 2017 (10,26). Hubo tasas de incidencia más altas en São Gonçalo do Amarante (620.69), Macaíba (49.26) y Mossoró (892.86) en diferentes años. La autocorrelación espacial de la tasa de incidencia de sífilis congénita se identificó en los años 2008 (valor p 0.01; I = 0.18) y 2014 (valor p 0.04; I = 0.04). Conclusión: La sífilis congénita está creciendo en el estado y su distribución es más frecuente en los municipios de la región metropolitana y en una ciudad del interior, donde existen situaciones contextuales que influyen en las tasas de incidencia. (AU)

Fatores associados às formas graves e aos óbitos por esquistossomose e aplicação do linkage probabilístico nas bases de dados, Pernambuco, 2007-2017 / Factors associated with severe forms and deaths from schistosomiasis and application of probabilistic linkage in databases, state of Pernambuco, Brazil, 2007-2017

RESUMO Objetivo: Verificar a concordância dos dados relacionados às formas graves e aos óbitos por esquistossomose registrados no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação e no Sistema de Informação Sobre Mortalidade, as variáveis sociodemográficas com a ocorrência das formas graves e óbitos e a tendência temporal da doença em Pernambuco. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo ecológico, descritivo, de série temporal com dados referentes às formas graves e aos óbitos por esquistossomose em Pernambuco, de 2007 a 2017. Para o linkage entre as bases de dados, foi desenvolvida uma função em linguagem python de programação, utilizando o método soundex. Para identificar fatores sociodemográficos e sanitários que se correlacionaram com as variáveis dependentes, foi aplicado o teste de correlação de Pearson. Para a análise de tendência, aplicou-se a regressão linear. Resultados: Identificaram-se 9.085 casos graves, 1.956 óbitos e 186 casos no linkage. A correlação entre a taxa média de positividade com o abastecimento hídrico rede geral e coleta de lixo foi 0,22 e 0,26 respectivamente. Houve correlação da taxa média de mortalidade acumulada com abastecimento hídrico por poço ou nascente (r=0,27), abastecimento hídrico por rede geral (r=0,3), coleta de lixo (r=0,42), urbanização das vias (r=0,29). Ocorreram 3.153 formas graves em 2007, com tendência a redução, e 205 óbitos em 2010, sem um padrão de tendência. Conclusão: Há necessidade de maiores investimentos no controle da doença e na qualidade da informação, especialmente no registro das formas graves, pois, dada a fisiopatologia da doença, o óbito só ocorre quando o indivíduo desenvolve a forma crônica, sendo imperativo sua notificação no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação.

ABSTRACT Objective: To verify the agreement of data on severe forms and deaths from schistosomiasis recorded in the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System and the Mortality Information System, sociodemographic variables with the occurrence of severe forms and deaths, and the temporal trend of the disease in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. Methods: This is an ecological, descriptive, time series study with data on severe forms and deaths from schistosomiasis in Pernambuco, from 2007 to 2017. For the linkage between databases, a function was developed in python programming language, using the Soundex method. To identify sociodemographic and health factors that correlated with the dependent variables, Pearson's correlation test was applied. For trend analysis, linear regression was applied. Results: We identified 9,085 severe cases, 1,956 deaths, and 186 cases in the linkage. The correlation between the average positivity rate with the general water supply and waste collection was 0.22 and 0.26 respectively. We verified a correlation of the average cumulative mortality rate with water supply by well or spring (r=0.27), water supply by the general network (r=0.3), waste collection (r=0.42), and road urbanization (r=0.29). We found 3,153 severe forms in 2007 with a decrease trend and 205 deaths in 2010, without a trend pattern. Conclusion: There is a need for greater investments in disease control and in the quality of information, especially in the record of severe forms, considering that, due to the pathophysiology of the disease, death only occurs when the individual develops the chronic form, and its notification on the Notifiable Diseases Information System is imperative.

Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and prediction of influenza in Hubei in 2009-2020 / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To explore the spatial-temporal characteristics of influenza epidemic in Hubei from 2009 to 2020, and make short-term prediction to provide reference for influenza prevention and control strategies. Methods Time series seasonal decomposition model and geographic spatial analysis method were used to analyze spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of influenza prevalence in Hubei during 2009-2020. LSTM neural network model was used to predict the monthly influenza incidence from 2020 to 2023. Results Influenza was mainly prevalent in the end of winter and the beginning of spring (December to March) were periods of high influenza incidence. In recent years, the influenza pandemic has shown an increasing trend. Influenza epidemic was characterized by significant spatial differentiation, with “A-shaped point-axis structure” surrounding counties were more severe . The epidemic center of gravity experienced a spatial evolution process from west to east and from north to south. LSTM neural network model predicted that although the influenza incidence rate from January 2020 to December 2023 is lower than that in 2019, it is still at a high level, and shows a peak epidemic in winter and spring. Conclusion Influenza epidemic in Hubei is characterized by a high epidemic period in late winter and early spring, and the southeast of Hubei is the key epidemic area. It is suggested that publicity and prevention and control should be strengthened according to people, time and place, and key populations and areas should be encouraged to receive influenza vaccines in advance.

Time trend and causes of HIV/AIDS mortality in the state of Santa Catarina, 2010­2019 / Tendência temporal e causas de mortalidade por HIV/AIDS no estado de Santa Catarina, 2010­2019

Introduction: Although the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) has no cure, antiretroviral treatment has considerably increased the survival of people living with the disease or with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), reducing the incidence of opportunistic infections in these patients. Thus, this treatment changed mortality rates and diversified the causes of death, including reasons related to increased longevity, such as chronic noncommunicable diseases, common in the uninfected population. Therefore, the current epidemiological transition motivated us to study the death profile of people with HIV/AIDS in the state of Santa Catarina. Objective: To investigate case characteristics, as well as the time trend and distribution of deaths, among people with HIV/AIDS in Santa Catarina between 2010 and 2019. Methods: In this ecological, epidemiological study, we consulted all death records from the Santa Catarina Mortality Information System that had HIV/AIDS among the causes and occurred between 2010 and 2019. Results: A total of 5,174 death records were analyzed. In the period, the mean mortality rate among people with HIV/AIDS was 7.64 deaths per 100 thousand inhabitants (95% confidence interval ­ 95%CI 6.61­8.67) ­ 8.99 in 2010 and 6.06 in 2019 ­, showing a downward trend of 0.38% per year. Conclusion: We identified a downward trend in mortality. Deaths were concentrated on the coast, in more populous cities. Furthermore, the finding of improper completion of the death certificate points to the need to invest in improving the training of professionals responsible for this document.

Introdução: Embora a síndrome da imunodeficiência adquirida (AIDS) não tenha cura, o tratamento antirretroviral aumentou consideravelmente a sobrevida das pessoas que vivem com a doença ou com o vírus da imunodeficiência humana (HIV), diminuindo a ocorrência de infecções oportunistas nesses pacientes. Assim, esse tratamento mudou as taxas de mortalidade e diversificou as causas de óbito, incluindo motivos relacionados ao aumento da longevidade, como doenças crônicas não transmissíveis comuns à população não infectada. Dessa forma, a atual transição epidemiológica motiva o estudo do perfil dos óbitos em pessoas com HIV/AIDS no estado de Santa Catarina. Objetivo: Investigar as características dos casos, a tendência temporal e a distribuição dos óbitos em pessoas com HIV/AIDS no estado de Santa Catarina entre os anos de 2010 e 2019. Métodos: Neste estudo epidemiológico com delineamento ecológico, foram consultados todos os registros de óbitos do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade de Santa Catarina ocorridos entre os anos de 2010 e 2019 que apresentassem entre as causas o HIV/AIDS. Resultados: Foram analisados 5.174 registros de óbitos. A taxa de mortalidade média entre pessoas com HIV/AIDS do período foi de 7,64 óbitos a cada 100 mil habitantes (95% intervalo de confiança ­ IC95% 6,61­8,67), sendo de 8,99 em 2010 e 6,06 em 2019, mostrando tendência de queda de 0,38 pontos percentuais ao ano. Conclusão: Observou-se tendência de queda na mortalidade. A concentração dos óbitos foi na faixa litorânea, em cidades mais populosas. Ademais, a constatação do falho preenchimento da declaração de óbito aponta para a necessidade de investir no aprimoramento do treinamento dos profissionais responsáveis por esse documento.

Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of mumps in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2019 / 预防医学

Objective @#To identify spatio-temporal distribution patterns of mumps in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2019, so as to provide insights into precise control of mumps.@*Methods @#The epidemiological data pertaining to mumps in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2019 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The time- and region-specific incidence of mumps was descriptively analyzed, and the spatio-temporal clustering characteristics of mumps incidence were identified using global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses and spatio-temporal scan analysis.@*Results @#A total of 167 196 cases of mumps were reported in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2019, and the incidence of mumps reduced from 56.08/105 in 2008 to 11.35/105 in 2019, with a reduction of 79.76%. There was no remarkable mumps seasonality since 2017; however, spatial autocorrelation was seen in mumps incidence in 2008, 2011 and 2012, respectively ( Moran's I coefficient=0.16, 0.18, 0.16; all P<0.05 ). Spatio-temporal scan analysis identified five spatio-temporal clusters of mumps incidence in 2008, 2011 and 2012, and the most likely spatio-temporal cluster was mainly concentrated in Cangnan County of Wenzhou City, covering 17 counties clustered in the time frame from 15 January 2008 to 28 February 2009, while the other four clusters were concentrated in Pinghu City of Jiaxing City, Kaihua County of Quzhou City, Fuyang District of Hangzhou City and Zhuji City of Shaoxing City, clustered in the time frame from 15 January 2008 to 30 June 2012. @*Conclusion @#The incidence of mumps appeared a tendency towards a reduction in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2019, and rebounded in some regions. No remarkable mumps seasonality was seen since 2017. The spatio-temporal clusters of mumps incidence were concentrated in Wenzhou and Jiaxing cities of Zhejiang Province in 2008, 2011 and 2012; however, no spatial cluster was identified since 2012.

Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of Oncomelania hupensis in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020 / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

OBJECTIVE@#To analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of Oncomelania hupensis snails in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020, to provide insights into precision control of O. hupensis snails in Anhui Province.@*METHODS@#O. hupensis snail distribution data were collected in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020 and descriptively analyzed, including actual area of snail habitats, area of emerging snail habitats and area of Schistosoma japonicum-infected snails. The actual area of snail habitats and area of emerging snail habitats were subjected to spatial autocorrelation analysis, hotspot analysis, standard deviation ellipse analysis and space-time scanning analysis, and the clusters of snail distribution and settings at high risk of snail spread were identified in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020.@*RESULTS@#The actual area of snail habitats gradually decreased in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020. The actual area of snail habitats were 26 238.85 hm2 in Anhui Province in 2020, which were mainly distributed in marshland and lake regions. There was a large fluctuation in the area of emerging snail habitats in Anhui Province during the period from 2011 to 2020, with the largest area seen in 2016 (1 287.65 hm2), and 1.96 hm2 emerging infected snail habitats were detected in Guichi District, Chizhou City in 2020. Spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analyses showed spatial clusters in the distribution of actual areas of snail habitats in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020 (Z = 3.00 to 3.43, all P values < 0.01), and the hotspots were mainly concentrated in the marshland and lake regions and distributed along the south side of the Yangtze River, while the cold spots were mainly concentrated in the mountainous regions of southern Anhui Province. There were no overall spatial clusters in the distribution of areas of emerging snail habitats (Z = -2.20 to 1.71, all P values > 0.05), and a scattered distribution was found in local regions. Standard deviation ellipse analysis showed relatively stable distributions of the actual areas of snail habitats in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020, which was consistent with the flow direction of the Yangtze River, and the focus of the distribution of areas of emerging snail habitats shifted from the lower reaches to upper reaches of Anhui section of the Yangtze River. Space-time scanning analysis identified two high-value clusters in the distribution of actual areas of snail habitats in lower and middle reaches of Anhui section of the Yangtze River from 2011 to 2020, and two high-value clusters in the distribution of areas of emerging snail habitats were identified in mountainous and hilly regions.@*CONCLUSIONS@#There were spatial clusters in the distribution of O. hupensis snails in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020, which appeared a tendency of aggregation towards the south side and upper reaches of the Yangtze River; however, the spread of O. hupensis snails could not be neglected in mountainous and hilly regions. Monitoring of emerging snail habitats should be reinforced in mountainous and hilly regions and along the Yangtze River basin.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of new HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 years and older in Wenzhou City from 2006 to 2020 / 预防医学

Objective@#To analyze the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of new HIV/AIDS cases at ages of 50 years and older in Wenzhou City from 2006 to 2020, so as to provide insights into precise control of AIDS. @*Methods @#The data of new HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 years and older in Wenzhou City from 2006 to 2020 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of new HIV/AIDS cases at ages of 50 years and older were identified using global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses and spatial-temporal scan analysis.@*Results@#Totally 1 917 new HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 years and older were detected in Wenzhou City from 2006 to 2020, and there were 179 new HIV/AIDS cases in 58 townships ( streets ) from 2006 to 2010, 643 cases in 113 townships ( streets ) from 2011 to 2015 and 1 095 cases in 147 townships ( streets ) from 2016 to 2020, respectively. The distribution of new HIV/AIDS cases appeared positive spatial autocorrelations from 2006 to 2010 ( Moran's I value=0.05, Z=1.976, P=0.046 ), from 2011 to 2015 ( Moran's I value=0.08, Z=2.314, P=0.028) and from 2016 to 2020 (Moran's I value=0.18, Z=3.956, P=0.003 ). Spatial-temporal scan analysis identified two clusters. The primary cluster mainly covered 70 towns ( streets ) in Lucheng Distrct, Ouhai District, Longwan District, Economic and Technical Development Region, Rui' an City and Pingyang County of Wenzhou City from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2020, with a cluster radius of 34.30 km [log likelihood ratio ( LLR )=192.84, RR=2.60, P<0.001], and the secondary cluster was located in Hongqiao Township of Yueqing City from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2015, with a cluster radius of 0 ( LLR=90.60, RR=7.27, P<0.001 ).@*Conclusions@#The number of new HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 years and older appeared a tendency towards a rise in Wenzhou City from 2006 to 2020, with spatial clusters that were predominantly identified in urban areas, Rui' an City and Pingyang County of Wenzhou City.

Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of air pollutants in Xi'an during 2017-2020 / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To analyze the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of six common air pollutants in Xi'an, and to provide a scientific basis for the environmental protection departments to conduct targeted prevention and control. Methods Based on air pollution monitoring data with high temporal resolution, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of six common air pollutants in Xi'an were analyzed, and the correlation between the pollutants was studied. Results Except for O3_8h, the annual average concentrations of the other five air pollutants decreased year by year. By 2020, the annual average concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 still exceeded the second-level concentration limit. The annual average concentration of NO2 was slightly higher than the first-level concentration limit, and the number of unqualified days of O3_8h accounted for one-tenth of the entire year. The concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, CO, SO2, and NO2 all were the highest in winter, equivalent in spring and autumn, and the lowest in summer. The concentration of O3_8h generally presented the characteristics of summer > spring > autumn > winter. In 2020, the annual average concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 in 9 urban areas exceeded the second-level concentration limit. The annual average concentrations of NO2 in Xincheng District, Lianhu District, Beilin District, and Yanta District all exceeded the second-level concentration limit. The annual average concentration of O3_8h in Beilin District, Chang'an District, and Yanliang District all exceeded the average level of Xi'an. PM2.5, PM10, CO, SO2, and NO2 in general showed a positive correlation in varying degrees. In summer, O3_8h showed a positive correlation with other air pollutants, but a negative correlation in other seasons. Conclusion The air pollution situation in Xi'an has been improving year by year, but the pollution of PM2.5, PM10, and O3_8h still exceeds the standard, which will be the focus of long-term prevention and control of air pollution in Xi'an.

Tendência de mortalidade por quedas em idosos, no Brasil, no período de 2000-2019 / Mortality trend from falls in Brazilian older adults from 2000 to 2019

RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por quedas entre idosos, no Brasil, no período de 2000 a 2019. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo epidemiológico, analítico, com delineamento ecológico de séries temporais. Realizou-se uma análise retrospectiva utilizando dados secundários em saúde, extraídos do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM) no período específico. Foram calculadas taxas padronizadas de mortalidade geral e específicas por sexo e faixa etária. Para a observação da tendência de mortalidade, utilizou-se o modelo de Prais-Winsten e taxa de incremento anual (TIA). Resultados: No período de 2000 a 2019, foram identificados 135.209 óbitos decorrentes das quedas em idosos. A mortalidade por queda em geral, no período estudado, foi crescente (β=0,023; p<0,001; TIA=5,45%). Observou-se que tanto o sexo masculino (β=0,022; p<0,001; TIA=5,19%) quanto o feminino (β=0,024; p<0,001; TIA=5,72%) apresentaram tendência crescente. Com relação à faixa etária, os resultados apontaram também para tendência de mortalidade crescente em todos os estratos etários, porém maior em idosos com idade ≥80 anos (β=0,027; p<0,001; TIA=6,38%). Conclusão: Observou-se tendência crescente nas taxas de mortalidade no Brasil durante a série histórica estudada. Esses achados sugerem a importância da definição de uma linha de cuidado para esse segmento etário, tendo como foco a promoção da saúde na pessoa idosa e a prevenção dos riscos de quedas, visando a uma redução no número de óbitos por essa causa e favorecendo a qualidade de vida dos idosos.

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the trend of mortality from falls among older adults in Brazil from 2000 to 2019. Methods: This is an epidemiological, analytical study with an ecological time-series design. A retrospective analysis was performed using secondary health data extracted from the Brazilian Mortality Information System in the specific period. Standardized rates of general and sex- and age-specific mortality were calculated. To observe the mortality trend, the Prais-Winsten model and the Annual Increase Rate (AIR) were used. Results: We identified 135,209 deaths resulting from falls in older adults in the period from 2000 to 2019. Mortality from falls in general, during the study period, had an upward trend (β=0.023; p<0.001; AIR=5.45%). We observed that both men (β=0.022; p<0.001; AIR=5.19%) and women (β=0.024; p<0.001; AIR=5.72%) had an upward trend. Regarding age group, the results also pointed to an upward mortality trend in all age strata, although higher in older people aged ≥80 years (β=0.027; p<0.001; AIR=6.38%). Conclusion: There was an upward trend in mortality rates in Brazil during the time series studied. These findings suggest the importance of defining a line of care for this age group, focusing on promoting health in older adults and preventing the risk of falls, aiming at a reduction in the number of deaths from this cause and favoring the quality of life of this population.

Stomach cancer incidence and mortality in Greater Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brazil, 2000-2016 / Incidência e mortalidade por câncer de estômago na Grande Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, 2000-2016

ABSTRACT: Objective: To analyze the incidence and mortality trend of stomach cancer in the Greater Cuiabá, in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, from 2000 to 2016. Methods: The incidence information was obtained from the Population-Based Cancer Registry, and the mortality information from the Mortality Information System. Crude and standardized rates were calculated using the direct method, with the world population as reference. The trends were estimated using the Joinpoint regression method, according to sex and age group, and evaluated through the Annual Percent Change (APC) and the Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC). The Joinpoint Regression Program software, version 4.9.0.0, was used. Results: There was a decreasing incidence trend of stomach cancer in males (AAPC=-5.2; 95% confidence interval — 95%CI −7.7--2.6), in men aged 60 to 69 years (AAPC=-3.7; 95%CI −5.6--1.8) and in 70-79 years (AAPC=-3.7; 95%CI −5.6--1.8), as well as in women aged 50 to 59 years (AAPC=-5.2; 95%CI −7.8--2.6) and 80 years or older (AAPC=-5.2; 95%IC −7.8--2.6). The mortality initially increased in women aged 60-69 years (AAPC=28.4; 95%CI 9.7-50.4), decreased for 80 years or older (AAPC=-26.4; 95%CI −38.0--12.6) and stable for the other age groups and males. Conclusion: A decreasing incidence trend of stomach cancer was found among men and, when analyzed by age, among elderly males and adults and elderly females, as well as a stability in the mortality, with an initial variation in elderly women. The production of regional information supports the planning of local policies aimed at reducing the burden of disease and deaths, considering unequal risk conditions and access to health services.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Analisar a tendência da incidência e da mortalidade por câncer de estômago na Grande Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, entre 2000 e 2016. Métodos: Dados de casos novos e óbitos de residentes dos municípios Cuiabá e Várzea Grande foram obtidos no Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional e no Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade, respectivamente. Foram calculadas taxas brutas e padronizadas pelo método direto, utilizando-se a população mundial como referência. As tendências foram estimadas pelo método de regressão Joinpoint, segundo sexo e faixa etária, e avaliadas por meio da variação percentual anual (annual percent change — APC) e da variação percentual média anual (average annual percent change — AAPC). Utilizou-se o software Joinpoint Regression Program, versão 4.9.0.0. Resultados: Verificou-se tendência decrescente da incidência do câncer de estômago no sexo masculino (AAPC=-5,2; intervalo de confiança — IC95% −7,7--2,6), em homens com 60-69 anos (AAPC=-3,7; IC95% −5,6--1,8) e 70-79 anos (AAPC=-3,7; IC95% −5,6--1,8), bem como em mulheres com 50-59 anos (AAPC=-5,2; IC95% −7,8--2,6) e 80 anos ou mais (AAPC=-5,2; IC95% −7,8--2,6). A mortalidade apresentou, inicialmente, aumento em mulheres com 60-69 anos (AAPC=28,4; IC95% 9,7-50,4), redução para 80 anos ou mais (AAPC=-26,4; IC95% −38,0--12,6) e estabilidade nas demais faixas etárias e entre homens. Conclusão: Verificou-se redução da incidência de câncer de estômago em homens e, quando analisada por idade, entre homens idosos e mulheres adultas e idosas, bem como estabilidade na mortalidade, com variação inicial em idosas. A produção de informações regionais subsidia o planejamento de políticas locais que visem à redução da carga da doença e de óbitos, considerando condições desiguais de risco e acesso a serviços de saúde.

Trend of incompleteness of cancer death records in the Mortality Information System database, state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, 2000 to 2016 / Tendência da incompletude dos registros de óbitos por câncer do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade em Mato Grosso, Brasil, 2000 a 2016

ABSTRACT: Objective: To describe the trend of incompleteness of cancer death records in the Mortality Information System (SIM, in Portuguese) database, state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, 2000 to 2016. Methods: This is a descriptive, ecological, time series study of records of death from cancer of people living in the state of Mato Grosso (codes C00 to C97 of the 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems - ICD-10), collected from SIM. To asses incompleteness in the filling of the variables of race/skin color, education, marital status, occupation and underlying cause of death, the relative frequency was calculated in the percentage of null values. The time trend analyzes of the incomplete percentage of categories and variables of interest was performed using linear regression (p<0.05). Results: From 2000 to 2016, there were 31,097 deaths from cancer among residents of the state of Mato Grosso. Race/skin color, marital status and occupation presented a stable trend of incompleteness; education and underlying cause of death were decreasing. An increasing trend was observed in the categories ignored (marital status) and retired (occupation); a decreasing trend was observed for blank (education), unidentified and housewife (occupation), and C76-other and ill-defined sites and C80-without specification of site (underlying cause of death). Incompleteness of occupation was classified as very poor, with emphasis on housewife and retired. For the remaining variables and categories, the classification was excellent or good. Conclusions: Although most of the indicators showed satisfactory trend and classification, the marital status and occupation variables stood out for indicating poorer quality in the records.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Descrever a tendência da incompletude dos registros de óbitos por neoplasias do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM) no estado de Mato Grosso, Brasil, no período de 2000 a 2016. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo descritivo, ecológico, do tipo série temporal, com dados referentes aos óbitos de residentes em Mato Grosso por neoplasias (códigos C00 a C97 da 10ª revisão da Classificação Estatística Internacional de Doenças e Problemas Relacionados à Saúde — CID-10), provenientes do SIM. Para a avaliação da incompletude no preenchimento das variáveis raça/cor, escolaridade, estado civil, ocupação e causa básica do óbito, foi calculada a frequência relativa em percentual de valores nulos. Análises de tendência temporal do percentual de incompletude das variáveis de interesse e categorias foram realizadas por meio de regressão linear (p<0,05). Resultados: De 2000 a 2016, ocorreram 31.097 óbitos por neoplasias em residentes no estado de Mato Grosso. Raça/cor, estado civil e ocupação apresentaram tendência estável da incompletude; escolaridade e causa básica do óbito foram decrescentes. Nas categorias, tendência crescente foi observada para ignorado (estado civil) e aposentado (ocupação); tendência decrescente foi verificada para em branco (escolaridade), não identificado e dona de casa (ocupação) e C76-outra localização e mal definidas e C80-sem especificação de localização (causa básica do óbito). Incompletude da ocupação foi classificada como muito ruim, com destaque para dona de casa e aposentado. Para as demais variáveis e categorias, a classificação foi excelente ou bom. Conclusões: Embora a maior parte dos indicadores tenha apresentado tendência e classificação satisfatórias, as variáveis estado civil e ocupação destacaram-se por indicarem piora na qualidade dos registros.

Mortality trend of cancer and main types according to macroregion in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, 2000 to 2015 / Tendência da mortalidade por câncer e principais tipos segundo macrorregiões do Estado de Mato Grosso, 2000 a 2015

ABSTRACT: Objective: To describe the mortality trend from all cancers and the five main ones in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, from 2000 to 2015. Methods: This is a descriptive, ecological, time series study, with data referring to deaths of residents of Mato Grosso due to cancer (ICD-10 codes C00 to C97), from the Mortality Information System (SIM). Time trend analyses of the standardized mortality rate from all cancers and five specific cancers (lung, prostate, breast, colorectal and cervical) for the state and according to macroregion (South, West, North, East and Center-North) were performed using linear regression (p<0.05). Results: From 2000 to 2015, 28,525 deaths from all cancers in residents of the state of Mato Grosso were recorded. An increasing trend was observed for all cancers, in addition to lung, breast and colorectal cancers. The South and North macroregions showed an increasing trend for all cancers, breast and colorectal, and Center-North for breast and colorectal. East showed an increasing trend for all cancers, prostate and colorectal, and decreasing for cervical. Conclusion: In the state of Mato Grosso, there was an increasing trend in mortality for all cancers and from specific ones, with emphasis on breast and colorectal cancer in most macroregions.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Descrever a tendência da mortalidade por todas as causas de câncer e as cinco principais causas no Estado de Mato Grosso, Brasil, no período de 2000 a 2015. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo descritivo, ecológico, do tipo série temporal, com dados referentes aos óbitos de residentes de Mato Grosso por neoplasias (códigos C00 a C97 da Classificação Internacional de Doenças — CID-10), provenientes do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade. A tendência temporal da taxa de mortalidade padronizada de todas as causas de câncer e de cinco causas específicas (pulmão, próstata, mama feminina, colorretal e colo do útero) para o Estado e segundo macrorregiões (Sul, Oeste, Norte, Leste e Centro-Norte) foi analisada por meio de regressão linear (p<0,05). Resultados: De 2000 a 2015, ocorreram 28.525 óbitos por todas as causas de câncer em residentes do Estado de Mato Grosso. Tendência crescente foi observada para todas as causas de câncer, além dos cânceres de pulmão, mama e colorretal. As macrorregiões Sul e Norte apresentaram tendência crescente para todas as causas, mama e colorretal; Centro-Norte para mama e colorretal; Leste foi crescente para todas as causas, próstata e colorretal e decrescente para colo do útero. Conclusão: No Estado de Mato Grosso, verificou-se tendência crescente de mortalidade por todas as causas de câncer e por causas específicas, com destaque para mama e colorretal na maioria das macrorregiões.

Intoxicações de mercúrio e chumbo com maior prevalência em crianças e trabalhadores no Paraná / Intoxications by mercury and lead with higher prevalence in children and workers in Paraná

Resumo Introdução A intoxicação exógena é um importante problema de saúde pública no Brasil. Objetivo Analisar os casos de intoxicação por metais na população do estado do Paraná e estimar a taxa de prevalência, bem como os fatores associados. Método Foi realizado um estudo descritivo com base nas intoxicações notificadas no período de 2007 a 2015. Resultados foram identificados 117 casos de intoxicação por metais e estimada uma prevalência de 1,2 caso por milhão de habitantes, com predomínio de casos no macrorregional norte da saúde. Com relação aos agentes tóxicos, mercúrio (41%) e chumbo (40,2%) foram confirmados como os mais frequentes. Dentre esses casos, houve predomínio do sexo masculino (57,3%), na faixa etária de 20 a 59 anos (55,6%), seguido da faixa etária de 1 a 4 anos (28,2%). Além disso, a residência e o local de trabalho foram destacados como locais de maior exposição, sendo relatados como acidentais em 70,1% dos casos, dos quais 41,9% necessitaram de cuidados hospitalares, 91% evoluíram para cura e houve um óbito. Conclusão A intoxicação por metais tem afetado principalmente crianças e trabalhadores, sugerindo medidas educativas e preventivas.

Abstract Background Exogenous intoxication is an important public health problem in Brazil. Objective Analyze cases of metal poisoning in the population of Paraná state and estimate the prevalence rate, as well as the associated factors. Method A descriptive study based on intoxications that were reported from 2007 to 2015 was performed. Results 117 cases of metal poisoning were identified and a prevalence rate of 1.2 cases per million inhabitants was estimated, with a predominance of cases on the northern health macro-regional complex. With respect to toxic agents, mercury (41%) and lead (40.2%) were confirmed as the most frequent ones. Among these cases, there was a predominance of males (57.3%), aged between 20 and 59 years old (55.6%), followed by the age group from 1 to 4 years old (28.2%). In addition, the residence and work place were highlighted as places of greatest exposure, being reported as accidental one in 70.1% of the cases, of which 41.9% required hospital cares, 91% evolved to cure and there was one death. Conclusion The metal poisoning has affected mainly children and workers, suggesting educational and preventive measures.

Spatial and temporal characteristics of reported schistosomiasis cases in China based on a Bayesian interrupted time-series model / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

Objective To investigate the spatial-temporal characteristics of reported schistosomiasis cases in China from 2004 to 2017, so as to provide insights into the development of different schistosomiasis control strategies at various stages. Methods The monthly data of reported schistosomiasis cases at a provincial level of China from 2004 to 2017 were collected from the Public Health Science Data Center, and the spatial-temporal distribution of reported schistosomiasis cases was preliminarily identified using a descriptive statistical method. According to the goals at different stages proposed by the National Mid- and Long-term Program for Schistosomiasis Prevention and Control in China (2004—2015), a Bayesian interrupted time-series model was established to analyze the provincial reported incidence, time trend and seasonal variations of schistosomiasis in China at different stages. Results The reported schistosomiasis cases were mainly concentrated in 5 provinces of Anhui, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan and 2 provinces of Sichuan and Yunnan in China from 2004 to 2017, and the number of reported cases in endemic areas decreased gradually. The incidence of reported schistosomiasis cases predominantly peaked during the period from May to September in the marshland and lake regions, while no regular seasonality was seen in hilly regions. Bayesian interrupted time-series analysis showed the peak incidence of reported schistosomiasis cases in 4 provinces of Anhui, Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi between May and September and in Jiangsu Province from July to November; however, no regular seasonal cycle was identified in hilly regions. The number of reported schistosomiasis cases showed a tendency towards an increase in 2 provinces of Hubei and Hunan from 2008 to 2014, with a minor peak during the period between March and April, and since 2015, the seasonality was not remarkable any longer in 3 provinces of Anhui, Jiangsu and Jiangxi with a decline in the incidence of reported schistosomiasis cases, while the seasonality remained in Hubei Province. Conclusions The spatial-temporal characteristics of schistosomiasis in China, notably seasonality, vary at different control stages. Bayesian interrupted time-series model is effective to identify the spatial-temporal changes of schistosomiasis, and the schistosomiasis control strategy may be adjusted according to the spatial-temporal changes to improve the schistosomiasis control efficiency.

Trend of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in an endemic state of the Amazon region / Tendencia de indicadores epidemiológicos de la lepra em el estado endémico de la región amazónica / Tendência dos indicadores epidemiológicos da hanseníase em um estado endêmico da região amazônica

ABSTRACT Objective To characterize the temporal trend of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in the State of Amapá. Method Time series study, carried out in the Notifiable Diseases Information System. The indicators analyzed were: annual detection rate of new cases, detection rate of new cases in the population from 0 to 14 years old, rate of new cases with grade 2 of disability, proportion of new cases with grade 2 and proportion of new multibacillary cases, between 2005 and 2018. The analysis of the temporal evolution was made by linear regression. Results The detection rate of new cases and the rate of children under 15 years showed a decreasing trend. The rate of new cases with grade 2 of disability and the proportion of cases with grade 2 showed oscillation. The proportions of multibacillary remained constant. Conclusion The epidemiological indicators analyzed suggest active transmission and late diagnosis, signaling a possible hidden endemic disease.

RESUMEN Objetivo Caracterizar la tendencia temporal de los indicadores epidemiológicos de la lepra en el Estado de Amapá. Métodos Estudio de series temporales realizado en el Sistema de Información de Enfermedades de Notificación. Los indicadores analizados fueron: tasa de detección anual de nuevos casos, tasa de detección de nuevos casos en la población de 0 a 14 años, tasa de nuevos casos com grado 2 de discapacidad, proporción de nuevos casos con grado 2 y proporción de nuevos casos multibacilares, entre 2005 y 2018. El análisis de la evolución temporal se realizó mediante regresión lineal. Resultados La tasa de detección de nuevos casos y la tasa de niños menores de 15 años mostraron una tendencia decreciente. La tasa de casos nuevos con discapacidad de grado 2 y la proporción de casos con grado 2 mostraron oscilación. Las proporciones de multibacilares se mantuvieron constantes. Conclusión Los indicadores epidemiológicos analizados sugieren transmisión activa y diagnóstico tardío, lo que indica una posible lepra oculta.

RESUMO Objetivo Caracterizar a tendência temporal dos indicadores epidemiológicos da hanseníase no Estado do Amapá. Método Estudo de série temporal, realizado no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação. Os indicadores analisados foram: taxa de detecção anual de casos novos, taxa de detecção de casos novos na população de 0 a 14 anos, taxa de casos novos com grau 2 de incapacidade, proporção de casos novos com grau 2 e proporção de casos novos multibacilares, entre 2005 e 2018. A análise da evolução temporal foi feita por meio de regressão linear. Resultados A taxa de detecção de casos novos e a taxa em menores de 15 anos apresentaram tendência decrescente. A taxa de casos novos com grau 2 de incapacidade e a proporção de casos com grau 2 apresentaram oscilação. As proporções de multibacilares mantiveram-se constantes. Conclusão Os indicadores epidemiológicos analisados sugerem transmissão ativa e diagnóstico tardio, sinalizando uma possível endemia oculta.

Premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases in Brazilian municipalities estimated for the three-year periods of 2010 to 2012 and 2015 to 2017 / Mortalidade prematura por doenças crônicas não transmissíveis nos municípios brasileiros, nos triênios de 2010 a 2012 e 2015 a 2017

ABSTRACT: Objective: To estimate premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in Brazilian municipalities. Methods: This ecological study estimated premature mortality rates due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, cancer and diabetes in Brazilian municipalities, for the three-year periods of 2010 to 2012 and 2015 to 2017, and it analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of these rates. Data treatment combined proportional redistribution of the missing data and ill-defined causes, and the application of coefficients for under-registration correction. The local empirical Bayesian estimator was used to calculate municipal mortality rates. Results: Rates for the set of chronic diseases decreased in Brazil between the three-year periods. The mean rates for total NCDs declined in the South, Southeast and Central-West regions, remained stable in the North and increased in the Northeast. Mortality rates due to cardiovascular diseases were the highest in all regions but showed the greatest declines between the periods. Cancers were the second leading cause of death. The North and Northeast regions stood out as having increased mean rates of cancer between the periods analyzed and showing the highest mean premature mortality rates due to diabetes in the 2015 to 2017 period. Conclusion: Spatial and temporal distribution of premature mortality rates due to NCDs differed between Brazilian municipalities and regions in the three-year periods evaluated. The South and Southeast had decreased rates of deaths due to cardiovascular and chronic respiratory diseases, as well as diabetes. The North and Northeast had increased rates of deaths due to cancer. There was an increase in the rate of deaths due to diabetes in the Central-West.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Estimar a mortalidade prematura por doenças crônicas não transmissíveis nos municípios brasileiros. Métodos: Estudo ecológico com estimativa das taxas de mortalidade prematura por doenças cardiovasculares, respiratórias crônicas, neoplasias e diabetes nos municípios brasileiros, nos triênios de 2010 a 2012 e 2015 a 2017, e análise da distribuição espacial e temporal dessas taxas. Realizou-se redistribuição proporcional dos dados faltantes e das causas mal definidas, e aplicaram-se coeficientes para correção de sub-registro. As taxas municipais de mortalidade foram calculadas pelo estimador bayesiano empírico local. Resultados: No Brasil, houve redução das médias das taxas municipais para o conjunto das doenças crônicas entre os triênios. No Sul, Sudeste e Centro-Oeste, houve declínio das médias das taxas para o total das DCNT; e no Nordeste, viu-se acréscimo. As médias das taxas de mortalidade por doenças cardiovasculares foram as mais altas em todas as regiões, mas apresentaram os maiores declínios entre os períodos. As neoplasias representaram o segundo principal grupo de causas. Norte e Nordeste destacaram-se pelo aumento das taxas médias de neoplasias entre os períodos analisados, bem como pela concentração das taxas mais altas de mortalidade prematura por diabetes no triênio 2015 a 2017. Conclusão: Diferenças na distribuição espaçotemporal das taxas de mortalidade prematura por DCNT foram identificadas entre municípios e regiões brasileiras. Houve redução das taxas por doenças cardiovasculares, respiratórias crônicas e diabetes no Sul e no Sudeste; aumento das taxas por neoplasias no Norte e no Nordeste; e aumento por diabetes no Norte e no Centro-Oeste.

Spatial and temporal distribution of cancer mortality in a Brazilian Legal Amazon State between 2000 and 2015 / Distribuição espacial e temporal da mortalidade por câncer em um estado da Amazônia Legal Brasileira entre 2000 e 2015

ABSTRACT: Objective: To analyze the spatial distribution of the four-year cancer mortality rates in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, from 2000 to 2015. Methodology: Ecological design study, in which mortality from neoplasia was analyzed, from 2000 to 2015, for the municipalities of Mato Grosso State. Mortality rates due to cancer were calculated by the ratio of the sum of deaths by cancer in each quadrennium, divided by the average of the population in the two central years of the period, multiplied by 10,000 inhabitants. Annual percentage change was calculated by the ratio of the linear regression coefficient to the cancer mortality rates in Mato Grosso State at the beginning of the analyzed period (2000 to 2003). Thematic maps were constructed for each quadrennium using intervals of equal classes. Results: Cancer caused 31,097 deaths in the state of Mato Grosso in the period, 13,058 in women and 18,039 in men, with a male to female ratio of 1.38. The top five causes of cancer death in the period were lung (12.2%), prostate (8.7%), stomach (7.7%), breast (6.0%), and liver (4.7%). There was an increase in the number of municipalities with rates greater than 23.67 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in the period. Conclusion: There was an increase in cancer mortality and an increase in the proportion of municipalities with higher mortality rates. Higher density of cancer mortality occurred in the municipalities located in the West, Center-South, Southeast, and Center-North regions of the state.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Analisar a distribuição espacial das taxas quadrimestrais de mortalidade por câncer no estado de Mato Grosso, Brasil, no período de 2000 a 2015. Métodos: Estudo de desenho ecológico, no qual foi analisada a mortalidade por neoplasia, de 2000 a 2015, para os municípios do estado de Mato Grosso. As taxas de mortalidade por câncer foram calculadas pela razão da soma das mortes por câncer em cada quadrênio, dividida pela média da população nos dois anos centrais do período, multiplicada por 10.000 habitantes. Uma variação percentual anual foi calculada pela razão do coeficiente de regressão linear para as taxas de mortalidade por câncer no estado de Mato Grosso no início do período analisado (2000 a 2003). Mapas temáticos foram construídos para cada quadriênio usando intervalos de classes iguais. Resultados: O câncer causou 31.097 óbitos no estado de Mato Grosso no período, 13.058 em mulheres e 18.039 em homens, com uma proporção de homens e mulheres de 1,38. As cinco principais causas de morte por câncer no período foram pulmão (12,2%), próstata (8,7%), estômago (7,7%), mama (6,0%) e fígado (4,7%). Houve um aumento no número de municípios com taxas superiores a 23,67 óbitos por 100.000 habitantes no período. Conclusão: Houve aumento da mortalidade por câncer e aumento na proporção de municípios com maiores taxas de mortalidade. Maiores densidades de mortalidade por câncer ocorreram nos municípios localizados nas regiões Oeste, Centro-Sul, Sudeste e Centro-Norte do estado.

Impact of Climate Change on Human Infectious Diseases: Dengue

Abstract Climate is considered an important factor in the temporal and spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases. Dengue transmission involves many factors: although it is not yet fully understood, climate is a critical factor as it facilitates risk analysis of epidemics. This study analyzed the effect of seasonal factors and the relationship between climate variables and dengue risk in the municipality of Campo Grande, from 2008 to 2018. Generalized linear models with negative binomial and Poisson distribution were used. The most appropriate model was the one with "minimum temperature" and "precipitation", both lagged by one month, controlled by "year". In this model, a 1°C rise in the minimum temperature of one month led to an increase in dengue cases the following month, while a 10 mm increase in precipitation led to an increase in dengue cases the following month.